The Geography of Defeat                                  
By James Steele

Questions in Need of Answers

The results of the 2004 general election tell us a great deal about the political balance of the country.  They also illuminate the scale of the tasks associated with a Democratic comeback, and place in bold relief the political, organizational, and ideological challenges ahead.

How well Kerry did, for instance, among specific groups of voters only highlights how poorly he performed among other demographics. At the same time, the results reveal the emergence of new forces and the potential for reinvigoration of the Democratic coalition.  While the post-election predicament raises questions for which there may be no immediate or precise answers, posing the right questions is far more useful than spin, regurgitating pat answers, or giving in to Republican hubris. 

For example:

• Why did the unprecedented Democratic mobilization fall short?
• What were the principal flaws of candidate Kerry and the Kerry campaign?  Do they alone explain the Democrats’ defeat?
• Does Bush’s victory negate the notion of an emerging Democratic majority?
• What does the role of religious social conservatives in this election portend for the future of American politics?
• To what degree are religion and race connected to relative non-competitiveness of Democratic presidential candidates in certain regions of our country?
• Where should the Democratic Party go from here?

The Most Important Election in a Generation

The 2004 presidential election was described as “the most important of election in a generation.” Indeed, the candidates, campaigns, political parties, corporations, unions, partisan groups, and nonpartisan activists went at it as if it was.  The voters responded by turning out at the highest rate in 36 years.  At the core of the electorate’s exceptionally intense political emotions lay what could be called hyper-support or hyper-opposition to foreign and domestic policies of President George W. Bush.

Bush’s 51 percent to 48 percent margin over Kerry translated into a 286 to 252 Bush victory in the Electoral College. He gained an astonishing 11 million more votes than he had in 2000, giving him the highest total of any presidential candidate in American history.  Kerry eclipsed Al Gore’s 2000 total by more than seven million votes — the second highest of any presidential candidate in American history.

Anatomy of the Bush Victory

Republican post-election hubris about a mandate aside, this closely contested election suggests that the road ahead will not be a smooth one for the second Bush Administration.  Because of the anomaly of Bush getting reelected despite low ratings on key foreign and domestic policy issues, the Democrats have good reasons for optimism.  Besides, there is no such thing as a 51 percent mandate.

If one uses four percentage points (the cut off for an acceptable margin of error in opinion polls), any performance above 54 percent among any segment of the electorate represents substantial success. By this measure, the respective performances of Bush and Kerry underline the degree of difficulty the Democratic coalition not only faced on Election Day, but also confronts as Democratic constituencies seek to derail Bush II’s contemplated political and legislative juggernaut.

Political demographics played themselves out differently in the Republican and Democratic parties. Take race, for example. The Republican Party does not have serious internal racial dynamics to manage.  Consequently, it has no campaign burdens to shoulder with respect to diversity, racial equality, or racial sensitivity.  It can simply advance platitudes, accuse the Democrats of taking Blacks for granted, while attempting to take African Americans and Latinos for a ride.  In what could be called deracialized racism, the president and vice-president could get away with campaigning almost exclusively before almost all-white audiences, in almost all-white venues, and not be questioned about it by the media or their opponents.

This approach paid off handsomely. more...

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